I strongly object to UBI, but from the perspective of macroeconomics as they will express themselves in the very short term to enslave the people even deeper than they are now.
Firstly, UBI will not lift the desperate poor out of poverty. It will, at best, be a tradeoff for the safety nets they now receive and that would be the first to be bargained away in an attempt to make UBI “affordable”. Even with a tax scheme that claws back the benefit from the wealthy and upper middle class, the benefit would have the most impact on the working poor, likely doubling their incomes if the benefit is sufficient to allow supporting a family.
The inflationary pressure from this would be huge, and unavoidable. As inflation negates the benefit the poorest, the disabled and infirm of mind will be immediately harmed without the safety net benefits sacrificed to pay for UBI. Once the value of the benefit drops to below what one requires to live, even the working poor will be back under the control of employers as they will need to work to survive. Raising the benefit to again make life’s necessities affordable for the poor only increases the inflation. The affected population is simply too large to avoid this. Commerce will continue much as it is now but largely subsidized by UBI, which actually places downward pressure on wages as more are forced to remain in, or return to, the job market.
I believe a better solution is to leave the safety nets, reinforced and more generous, in place to allow dignity to those who can’t or simply don’t want to work. Then a federally funded and locally administered job guarantee would provide a livable wage job with full benefits to anyone who wants it. This would provide a continual floor for wages and benefits in private sector job markets, basing the economy in the work hour. There are plenty of jobs that aren’t being done because they offer no path to profitability, but could provide invaluable service to society, especially in mitigating climate change and transitioning to a green energy economy.
The jobs would be real, not make work, but the list of jobs to be monetized would be greatly expanded as well to take the best advantage of the talents and passions of the people. Most of what is now volunteer work would become paid work, as long as it provides some service or community improvement. The program would provide a stable of workers for private sector employers to draw from with their work and social skills intact, a real problem with long term unemployed at the moment. It would be naturally countercyclical to the business cycle and inject public money into the economy to maintain supply and distribution chains across downcycles.
A UBI type income can be made available to anyone who chooses it over a job guarantee and anyone who can’t work can still take advantage of safety nets should their individual needs exceed the benefit. While the job guarantee would not be meant to compete with the private sector employers many would likely find satisfaction from public service and choose to stay in it. Cutting the wages and benefits of the job guarantee would be difficult for Republicans as it would quickly become evident that it sets the wage bottom for everyone, not to mention excellent benefits. All employers would have to step up their game if anyone could walk into a decent paying job anytime they choose.
