Keith Evans
1 min readApr 15, 2019

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Evidence? Is this a conspiracy?

No conspiracy. The Fed fully admits it uses interest rates to “cool off” the economy. If Trump hadn’t pitched a fit we would have seen two rate increases over the last two years. It is assumed that higher costs for housing and auto financing will put the brakes on an overheated economy. What it actually does is raise unemployment and drive investors away from production toward bonds to shield themselves from harm. It uses the unemployment rate as its barometer for this and 4% is generally considered “full employment”.

The problem with this is that unemployment computation is entirely a political process and administrations take great pride in lower numbers. An advertised 4% is more like 8–10% actual unemployment if everyone who would take a job if it were offered was counted. If you are a member of some demographic that is traditionally first fired and last hired the effective unemployment can easily be 20–25% for that demographic.

The simplistic logic behind this is that higher wages reduce investments more than do higher bond returns. The working stiff is the variable in current policy and faces both higher housing and transportation costs and increased competition for available jobs. Ya, that will cool off an economy, but the motivation behind it is very questionable in light of a Constitutional mandate that Congress create the currency for “the common welfare”.

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Keith Evans
Keith Evans

Written by Keith Evans

Meandering to a different drummer.

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