So if Russia reduces rates to try to stimulate its economy, it will exacerbate inflationary pressures and create pent-up desire to short the currency that will remain bottled up until capital controls are relaxed.

It is quite obvious that you are writing from the perspective of a currency trader. What is missing from your logic is the fact that Russia is a resource rich country that never needs to sell its debt to maintain its domestic economy. Its currency, like the US dollar, is self funding and driven by Russia's ability to levy and collect taxation, not an exchange rate against other currencies.

The perception of lower bond yields driving inflation is also in error, especially when the rates are in double digits. If Russia is matching its deficit with bond issues it is simply increasing its effective deficit by 20% in terms of currency created in the private sector. The pressure on bond sales becomes downward as new money creation drives a desire to save in that currency, which is directly contrary to common assumption.

If Russia's trading partners are holding ruble-denominated debt, which they would be wise to do, one could assert that they are already hedging their energy bets by 20% on top of Russia's offering of cheap prices. Purchasing Russian energy products is about the only use a country such as Germany might have for rubles and there is little to be gained by offering both the export and the ability to deeply discount payments for it via monetary policy.

Exports are a "cost" to nations with sovereign fiat currencies. They drain resources and labor in exchange for a currency that the central bank can create at will and distribute in the domestic economy. Putin's motivation for demanding rubles for its exports, which will soon be expanded to all products exported, is to place monetary pressure on the EU members, not to strengthen his own currency domestically.