This election belongs to whatever reasonably coherent Dem wins the nomination. Trump is even more terrible than Hillary and the MSM thought when they singled him out as the easiest to beat and awarded him with a $Billion in free air time to assure his win of his party’s nomination. That is motivating the establishment DNC, still very much in power and very much the choice of the MSN, to forward some risky candidates that would never be considered against any sane Republican.
Had Perez simply denied Bernie the privilege of running as a Dem he would have been responsible for the first viable third party in America, as Bernie has an immense following and the ability to produce a level of excitement even greater than Obama could among voters. He wouldn’t win, but he would spoil the “free ball” opportunity that four years of Trump will surely give the DNC. I’m only surprised that the RNC hasn’t made a move to declare him unqualified to preserve any chance they might have in 2020.
Bernie’s support comes largely from independent voters, which are much more a factor than swing voter in populace election years when voters are in protest mode. Trump can no longer run to the left of an establishment Dem as he did against Hillary except on immigration. He simply lied his way through the general election, playing on Hillary’s notoriety for having a public and private position and the obvious popularity of Bernie’s policies. He did, after all, promise to tax the wealthy and end the wars, on top of his promise to “drain the swamp”. He’s just smart enough to understand that people don’t vote from the same brain they use to deal with non-emotional issues. Had Hillary adopted any one of Bernie’s obviously popular policies she would be President now.
Biden and Warren are the only real threats to Bernie, given Tulsi’s relatively unknown status among those not heavily politically engaged. Neither would be able to match Trump’s attack dog style that appealed to populace voters, but either would likely win as Trump is wearing that personna rather thin with daily attacks on anyone in sight not praising him and out of control tweeting. Bernie, however, still gives the party its best chance of winning, and Warren’s adoption of his single-payer healthcare plan has to be raising concern in the establishment hierarchy. That leaves Biden as their only hope of preserving their power, but his history of gaffs and bailing when the going gets tough has to have them shaking.
Polling at this stage is hardly reliable and serves more to shape opinion than measure it. Look to who the MSM places at the top of polling results to see who the current establishment pick is. Look to crowd size and energy level on the ground, as well as how broad-based donations are, to see who the “real” leader is. Barring any serious shenanigans by the DNC, which could spell its demise for a generation if it is as heavy-handed as it was in ’16, Bernie will be our next President, but will experience difficulty enacting legislation because of opposition from neoliberal Dems who will feel displaced from their lofty positions of power.
